Ten Dems
Working to elect Democrats to the House and Senate in 2026
Site last updated: October 23, 2026. Updated at least monthly, in the middle of each month.
OCTOBER 23 CHANGES: On Oct 23 we added two House candidates to our super-priority list of toss-up races. Here is a link to their campaign websites and video clips:
- Zach Dembo (KY-6) - 2026 video clip
- Johnny Garcia (TX-35) - 2026 video clip
Other Oct 23 updates:
- Bob Harvie (PA-1) and Lindsay James (IA-2) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list
- Jamie Ager (NC-11) and JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-6) moved off our list because those races are now leaning in their favor
OCTOBER 21 CHANGE: We added House candidate Sam Forstag (Montana-1) to our list of toss-up races; on that date there were no other changes to our candidate lists. Here is a link to his campaign website, and his introductory video clip:
Sam Forstag (MT-1) - 2026 video clip
October 15 changes since previous month:
- SENATE: Adam Hamilton (Kansas) added to supplementary list
- SENATE: Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Josh Turek (Iowa) moved from supplementary list to super-priority list
- SENATE: Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list
- SENATE: Chris Pappas (New Hampshire) moved off our list because that race is now leaning in his favor
- HOUSE: Mitchell Berman (WI-1), Bob Harvie (PA-1), Lindsay James (IA-2) and Nancy Lacore (SC-1) added to super-priority list
- HOUSE: Jamie Ager (NC-11) and Sean McCann (MI-4) added to supplementary list
- HOUSE: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3), William Lawrence (MI-7) and Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) moved from super-priority list to supplementary list
- HOUSE: Bob Brooks (PA-7), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-3) and Gabe Vasquez (NM-2) moved off our list because those races are now leaning in their favor
CONTENTS
1. Our lists: Explanation
2. Super-priority list - October 23, 2026
3. Supplementary list - October 23, 2026
4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates
5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists
The aim of this website is to identify Dem House and Senate candidates in genuine toss-up races, and to flag which of those are currently most in need of donations and volunteers.
1. Our lists: Explanation
- Our candidate lists in sections 2 and 3 are based primarily on private conversations with political experts in DC (those we believe have the best overview of all Senate and House races nationwide, including each candidate's real-time financial situation). See section 5 below for other sources we consult.
- These are the candidates in the closest races, expected to be within 1 or 2 percentage points. Candidates are not included if they are in competitive Democratic primaries, if their Republican opponent is not yet known and may affect whether the race will be close, or if there is a more-than-remote chance of future redistricting which may affect whether a House race will be close.
- We do not screen candidates based on their records or policy positions – we leave it to each person to decide which Democratic candidates they wish to support.
- The hyperlink on each candidate’s name links to their campaign website, where you can learn about the candidate, make a donation, and/or offer to volunteer.
2. Super-priority list - October 23, 2026: The 10 candidates in toss-up races who are most in need of donations and volunteers now.
SENATE:
- Sherrod Brown (Ohio) - 2025 video clip
- Troy Jackson (Maine) - 2026 video clip
- Josh Turek (Iowa) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip
HOUSE:
- Mitchell Berman (WI-1) - 2026 video clip
- Don Davis (NC-1) - 2022 video clip
- Zach Dembo (KY-6) - 2026 video clip
- Johnny Garcia (TX-35) - 2026 video clip
- Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) - 2025 video clip; 2025 video clip
- Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) - 2024 video clip
- Nancy Lacore (SC-1) - 2026 video clip
3. Supplementary list of priority candidates - October 23, 2026: Other priority candidates in toss-up races who also need donations and volunteers, but their need is not as pressing as the super-priority candidates at this time.
SENATE:
- Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) - 2026 video clip; 2025 video clip
- Adam Hamilton (Kansas) - 2026 video clip
- Mary Peltola (Alaska) - 2026 video clip
- James Talarico (Texas) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip
HOUSE:
- Kathy Castor (FL-14) - 2026 video clip
- Paige Cognetti (PA-8) - 2025 video clip
- Cait Conley (NY-17) - 2026 video clip
- Rebecca Cooke (WI-3) - 2024 video clip
- Pia Dandiya (FL-22) - 2026 video clip; 2026 video clip
- Sam Forstag (MT-1) - 2026 video clip
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-3) - 2025 video clip; 2022 video clip (refers to that election's opponent)
- Bob Harvie (PA-1) - 2025 video clip
- Christina Hines (MI-10) - 2026 video clip
- Lindsay James (IA-2) - 2026 video clip
- William Lawrence (MI-7) - 2026 video clip
- Elaine Luria (VA-2) - 2019 video clip
- Sean McCann (MI-4) - 2026 video clip
- Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) - 2022 video clip
- Brian Poindexter (OH-7) - 2026 video clip
- Manny Rutinel (CO-8) - 2026 video clip
- Shannon Taylor (VA-1) - 2025 video clip
- Randy Villegas (CA-22) - 2026 video clip
4. For those who wish to also consider other candidates
As explained above, the mandate of our Ten Dems Network is singularly focused: to identify the House and Senate races that are genuine toss-ups.
We are aware that some people who share the goal of gaining control of the House and Senate may wish to support not only toss-up candidates, but also Dem candidates in other House and Senate races, often focusing on races rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican”. For example, Dem candidates currently in "Lean Republican" House races include: Teresa Benitez-Thompson (NV-2), Matt Dunlap (ME-2), Shomari Figures (AL-2), Leela Gray (FL-13), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Eileen Laubacher (CO-4), Jonathan Nez (AZ-2), Katy Padilla Stout (TX-23) and Eliott Rodriguez (FL-27).
Cook Political Report defines “Lean Republican” as a race that is considered competitive, but in which the Republican candidate has a distinct advantage. In other words, a "Lean Republican" rating indicates that the race is a serious contest, but the structural, political, or financial factors lean in favor of the Republican nominee. With strong support and donations, some of the Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races might win. But it is more likely that Dem candidates in “Lean Republican” races will lose – so donors need to take that risk into account.
For those who want to find out which House and Senate races are rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican” by election forecasting organizations, see the following links. The first two organizations below have a “Lean Republican” category in their ratings; Inside Elections has both “Lean Republican” and “Tilt Republican” categories, the latter denoting a race rated between toss-up and “Lean Republican”. Please note: These rating agencies list the races under the name of the incumbent.
- Cook Political Report: Senate ratings; House ratings.
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball (University of Virginia Center for Politics): Senate ratings; House ratings.
- Inside Elections: Senate ratings; House ratings.
5. Sources we consult when compiling our candidate lists
- As noted in section 1 above, our candidate lists are based primarily on discussions with political experts in DC who have the best overview of every House and Senate race nationwide.
- Other sources we consult include: Polls, vote share and win probability projections; ratings by Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball (Univ. of Virginia Center for Politics), and Inside Elections; and commentary in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin and G. Elliott Morris' Strength in Numbers.
